Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: Systematic review

This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) licence that allows reuse subject only to the use being non-commercial and to the article being fully attributed (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0).Objective - To evaluate current risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes and inform selection and implementation of these in practice. Design - Systematic review using standard (quantitative) and realist (mainly qualitative) methodology. Inclusion - criteria Papers in any language describing the development or external validation, or both, of models and scores to predict the risk of an adult developing type 2 diabetes. Data sources - Medline, PreMedline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched. Included studies were citation tracked in Google Scholar to identify follow-on studies of usability or impact. Data extraction - Data were extracted on statistical properties of models, details of internal or external validation, and use of risk scores beyond the studies that developed them. Quantitative data were tabulated to compare model components and statistical properties. Qualitative data were analysed thematically to identify mechanisms by which use of the risk model or score might improve patient outcomes. Results - 8864 titles were scanned, 115 full text papers considered, and 43 papers included in the final sample. These described the prospective development or validation, or both, of 145 risk prediction models and scores, 94 of which were studied in detail here. They had been tested on 6.88 million participants followed for up to 28 years. Heterogeneity of primary studies precluded meta-analysis. Some but not all risk models or scores had robust statistical properties (for example, good discrimination and calibration) and had been externally validated on a different population. Genetic markers added nothing to models over clinical and sociodemographic factors. Most authors described their score as “simple” or “easily implemented,” although few were specific about the intended users and under what circumstances. Ten mechanisms were identified by which measuring diabetes risk might improve outcomes. Follow-on studies that applied a risk score as part of an intervention aimed at reducing actual risk in people were sparse. Conclusion - Much work has been done to develop diabetes risk models and scores, but most are rarely used because they require tests not routinely available or they were developed without a specific user or clear use in mind. Encouragingly, recent research has begun to tackle usability and the impact of diabetes risk scores. Two promising areas for further research are interventions that prompt lay people to check their own diabetes risk and use of risk scores on population datasets to identify high risk “hotspots” for targeted public health interventions.Tower Hamlets, Newham, and City and Hackney primary care trusts and National Institute of Health Research

Closed loop fiber optic rotation sensor

An improved optical gyroscope is provided, of the type that passes two light components in opposite directions through an optic fiber coil, and which adds a small variable frequency to one of the light components to cancel the phase shift due to rotation of the coil. The amount of coil rotation from an initial orientation, is accurately determined by combining the two light components, one of which has a slightly increased frequency, to develop beats that each represent a predetermined angle of rotation. The direction of rotation is obtained by combining the two light components on a photodetector, intermittently phase shifting a single light component by 90 deg and comparing the direction of change of photodetector output (+ or -) caused by the 90 deg shift, with the slope (+ or -) of the photodetector output at about the same time, when there is a 90 deg shift

Type II critical phenomena of neutron star collapse

We investigate spherically-symmetric, general relativistic systems of collapsing perfect fluid distributions. We consider neutron star models that are driven to collapse by the addition of an initially "in-going" velocity profile to the nominally static star solution. The neutron star models we use are Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff solutions with an initially isentropic, gamma-law equation of state. The initial values of 1) the amplitude of the velocity profile, and 2) the central density of the star, span a parameter space, and we focus only on that region that gives rise to Type II critical behavior, wherein black holes of arbitrarily small mass can be formed. In contrast to previously published work, we find that--for a specific value of the adiabatic index (Gamma = 2)--the observed Type II critical solution has approximately the same scaling exponent as that calculated for an ultrarelativistic fluid of the same index. Further, we find that the critical solution computed using the ideal-gas equations of state asymptotes to the ultrarelativistic critical solution.Comment: 24 pages, 22 figures, RevTeX 4, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Robustness of the Blandford-Znajek mechanism

The Blandford-Znajek mechanism has long been regarded as a key ingredient in models attempting to explain powerful jets in AGNs, quasars, blazzars etc. In such mechanism, energy is extracted from a rotating black hole and dissipated at a load at far distances. In the current work we examine the behaviour of the BZ mechanism with respect to different boundary conditions, revealing the mechanism robustness upon variation of these conditions. Consequently, this work closes a gap in our understanding of this important scenario.Comment: 7 pages, accepted in CQ

Evidence for strong evolution in galaxy environmental quenching efficiency between z = 1.6 and z = 0.9

Indexación: Web of Science; Scopus.We analyse the evolution of environmental quenching efficiency, the fraction of quenched cluster galaxies which would be star forming if they were in the field, as a function of redshift in 14 spectroscopically confirmed galaxy clusters with 0.87 < z < 1.63 from the Spitzer Adaptation of the Red-Sequence Cluster Survey. The clusters are the richest in the survey at each redshift. Passive fractions rise from 42-13 +10 per cent at z ~ 1.6 to 80-9 +12 per cent at z ~ 1.3 and 88-3 +4 per cent at z < 1.1, outpacing the change in passive fraction in the field. Environmental quenching efficiency rises dramatically from 16-19 +15 per cent at z ~ 1.6 to 62-15 +21 per cent at z~1.3 and 73-7 +8 per cent at z ≲ 1.1. This work is the first to show direct observational evidence for a rapid increase in the strength of environmental quenching in galaxy clusters at z ~ 1.5, where simulations show cluster-mass haloes undergo non-linear collapse and virialization.https://academic.oup.com/mnrasl/article/465/1/L104/241728

Stellar mass function of cluster galaxies at z ~ 1.5: evidence for reduced quenching efficiency at high redshift

Indexación: Web of ScienceWe present the stellar mass functions (SMFs) of passive and star-forming galaxies with a limiting mass of 10(10.1) M-circle dot in four spectroscopically confirmed Spitzer Adaptation of the Red-sequence Cluster Survey (SpARCS) galaxy clusters at 1 : 37 < z < 1 : 63. The clusters have 113 spectroscopically confirmed members combined, with 8-45 confirmed members each. We construct Ks-bandselected photometric catalogs for each cluster with an average of 11 photometric bands ranging from u to 8 mu m. We compare our cluster galaxies to a field sample derived from a similar Ks-band-selected catalog in the UltraVISTA / COSMOS field. The SMFs resemble those of the field, but with signs of environmental quenching. We find that 30 +/- 20% of galaxies that would normally be forming stars in the field are quenched in the clusters. The environmental quenching e ffi ciency shows little dependence on projected cluster-centric distance out to similar to 4 Mpc, providing tentative evidence of pre-processing and/or galactic conformity in this redshift range. We also compile the available data on environmental quenching efficiencies from the literature, and find that the quenching e ffi ciency in clusters and in groups appears to decline with increasing redshift in a manner consistent with previous results and expectations based on halo mass growth.http://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2016/08/aa28663-16/aa28663-16.htm

DYNA3D Finite Element Analysis of Steam Explosion Loads on a Pedestal Wall Design

The objective of this brief report is to document the ESBWR pedestal wall finite element analyses that were performed as a quick turnaround effort in July 2005 at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and describe the assumptions and failure criteria used for these analyses [Ref 4]. The analyses described within are for the pedestal wall design that included an internal steel liner. The goal of the finite element analyses was to assist in determining the load carrying capacity of the ESBWR pedestal wall subjected to an impulsive pressure generated by a steam explosion

The effect of build orientation and surface modification on mechanical properties of high speed sintered parts

High speed sintering is a novel additive manufacturing technology that uses inkjet printing and infra-red energy to selectively sinter polymeric powder. The research presented here investigates the effect of build orientation on dimensional accuracy, density, mechanical properties and surface roughness of high speed sintered parts. Tensile specimens were built through seven different angles between and including the XY (horizontal) and ZY (vertical) planes and analysed. The effect of the PUSh™ process was also investigated across this range of build orientations. The results show that build orientation does infuence the properties of the parts. A number of mechanical properties showed a relationship with build orientation. Density was seen to decrease as the angle increased from XY towards ZY. This increase in angle was shown to increase surface roughness while ultimate tensile strength and elongation at break decreased. At all build orientations, the PUSh™ process significantly reduces surface roughness, mildly increases part density and had a small effect on ultimate tensile strength whilst showing a small but consistent increase in elongation at break

Exact solution and interfacial tension of the six-vertex model with anti-periodic boundary conditions

We consider the six-vertex model with anti-periodic boundary conditions across a finite strip. The row-to-row transfer matrix is diagonalised by the `commuting transfer matrices' method. {}From the exact solution we obtain an independent derivation of the interfacial tension of the six-vertex model in the anti-ferroelectric phase. The nature of the corresponding integrable boundary condition on the $XXZ$ spin chain is also discussed.Comment: 18 pages, LaTeX with 1 PostScript figur

Knowledge-based vision and simple visual machines

The vast majority of work in machine vision emphasizes the representation of perceived objects and events: it is these internal representations that incorporate the 'knowledge' in knowledge-based vision or form the 'models' in model-based vision. In this paper, we discuss simple machine vision systems developed by artificial evolution rather than traditional engineering design techniques, and note that the task of identifying internal representations within such systems is made difficult by the lack of an operational definition of representation at the causal mechanistic level. Consequently, we question the nature and indeed the existence of representations posited to be used within natural vision systems (i.e. animals). We conclude that representations argued for on a priori grounds by external observers of a particular vision system may well be illusory, and are at best place-holders for yet-to-be-identified causal mechanistic interactions. That is, applying the knowledge-based vision approach in the understanding of evolved systems (machines or animals) may well lead to theories and models that are internally consistent, computationally plausible, and entirely wrong